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Yamamoto's Mistake in 1941
IntroductionThis page is a spin off from "Qian Xuesen" and bears no direct relevance with the child protection industry, except:
The main focus of this web page is to further analyze whether China (a perceived totalitarian tyranny and a threat to many, if not most, Canadians) or the U.S.A. (a democratic self ordained world police) posts a larger threat to peace and world safety in respect of readiness and reliance on preemptive strike. Recent economical and military developments prompt the U.S. government to prepare for preemptive strike against one of its greatest perceived enemies China. We will examine the value of preemptive strike in achieving final victory in light of the Pearl Harbour attack in December of 1941. We will also discuss some historical factors that led to the current status.
A Brief Overview of Modern Japanese HistoryBefore the Meiji Reform (明治維新) (also known as Meiji Restoration) in 1868, Japan was a backward feudal state. Gunboat diplomacy of the West opened up Japanese ports to trade and triggered the Reform that accelerated industrialization and modernization in Japan. Within three decades, Japan became a military power strong enough to defeat its neighbour China in the 9-month long First Sino-Japanese War (1894-5). The Treaty of Shimonoseki was signed on 17 April 1895 and Taiwan was ceded to Japan. War reparation from China helped to build Japan's war machine. By 1905, Japan defeated Imperial Russia on Chinese soil and took over Russian interests in China. In World War I, both China and Japan sided with the Allied. However, all German interests in China were transferred to Japan at the end of War when Germany was defeated. Exploitation from conquered territories prepared Japan to pursue further aggression. Isoroku Yamamoto 山本五十六 (4 April 1884–18 April 1943) was the commander-in-chief of the Imperial Japanese Combined Fleet (聯合艦隊) at the beginning of the Pacific War. Since the invasion of Manchuria (north eastern China) in 1931, Japan's war effort required a huge amount of natural resources. After the League of Nations investigated and condemned Japan for invading Manchuria in 1931, Japan withdrew from the League on 27 March 1933. The United States imposed trade embargo, especially arms and oil, on Japan that threatened the island nation's war effort in China.
Pearl Harbor Attack: A Meticulously Planned Preemptive StrikeAfter the U.S. Congress passed the Two-Ocean Navy Act on 19 July 1940, Japan knew that war with America was inevitable. The Japanese High Command ordered Yamamoto to draw up plans to defeat the U.S. Yamamoto had lived and been educated in America. Given the disparity in strategic strength, he knew that Japan cannot defeat the U.S. The best that Japan could do is to deliver a fatal military blow to paralyze the Americans in the Pacific, demoralize their will to fight and compel them to sue for peace. With this notion in mind, Yamamoto masterminded the preemptive strike in Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941. Delay in delivering the ultimatum to the U.S. State Department had turned the meticulously planned surprise attack to a sneak attack, fueling the Americans with rage and passion to seek revenge. Although the attack was a tactical success, Yamamoto failed to destroy the three American carriers in the Pacific. To protect his ships against air strike from the intact American carriers, Admiral Chūichi Nagumo (南雲 忠一) withdrew before launching the third wave attack aimed to destroy the docks and oil storage facilities. Pearl Harbor became functional again within months after the attack. Many of the damaged warships became combat ready. Pearl Harbour continued to function as the U.S. Pacific Fleet head quarter. Yamamoto's strategic objective to force the U.S. to sue for peace had not been accomplished. Politically, the attack had awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve to seek total victory. At Winston Churchill's great relief, Yamamoto brought the United Sates into the war, an outcome Churchill had sought without success since war broke out in Poland in September 1939. America had turned away from isolationism. Churchill was contended that England was saved. America's entry to the war had permanently changed the balance of power against the Axis and is a determining factor of the ultimate defeat of the Axis Powers.
Post-War Japan's Speedy RecoveryAfter World War II, Japan's constitution (drafted under American direction) prohibited its government to build an armed force until the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950. When General Douglas MacArthur needed the American troops in Korea, Japan was allowed to build a small defensive force. A small post-war defence budget contributed significantly to the speedy recovery of the post-war Japanese economy. In less than two decades, Japan became the largest economy in Asia. In 1991, Japanese Yen faced heavy American pressure to appreciate. The more expensive Yen rendered Japanese goods less competitive and recession sets in until now. At the point of writing, Japan has not recovered from a long period of economic slump. Failure to attain economic recovery is a reason of political instability. Japan has seven prime ministers since 26 September 2006. This provides an incentive for the Japanese government to divert attention away from domestic financial problems by way of a patriotic war.
Japan's Ambition to Ascend to World PowerDespite Japan's shortage of strategic edge and reliance on foreign raw materials, its ambition to dominate Asia, if not the world, has never ceased. Unlike Germany, Japan shows no remorse and pays no reparation to nations it invaded in the last century. Recent leaders denied many crimes against humanity its army had committed. Furthermore, it portrayed itself as a victim of war, in particular a victim of atomic bomb, rather than a perpetrator. Its ambition to ascend to world power is evident in the following:
Japan's Ruse to Create a Pretext to Expand Its Military and to Pursue Preemptive Strike PowerLiberal Democratic Party (自由民主党) (the ruling party in Japan at the point of writing) blatantly declares that one goal of the party is to returning the constitution to support the political system of the pre-WWII era, hence the ability to raise an armed force capable of waging aggressive war. To garner international support, especially support from the Untied States, Japan needs excuses to justify the expansion of its military. The Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台列嶼) (also known as Senkaku Islands by the Japanese) Dispute and the North Korea nuclear test in February 2013 provided a golden opportunity for Japan. The Diaoyutai Islands Dispute The Diaoyutai Islands dispute is shrewdly masterminded by the invisible hands of the United States. After World War II ended, these islands were supposed to return to China together with Taiwan under the Cairo Declaration. Although the Diaoyutai Islands were not explicitly mentioned in the Declaration, it is safe to contend that they are part of Taiwan given their geographic proximity and historical evidence of connection with China. Japan subsequently renounced all right, title, and claim to Taiwan in the San Francisco Peace Treaty (8 September 1951) which came into force on 28 April 1952. At that time, China lacked the naval power to take over these islands and they were under the control of the U.S. until 1972.
In 1969, potential oil and gas reserves in the vicinity of the islands were proclaimed. Without consultation with China or Taiwan, the U.S. unilaterally returned the control of these islands (which obviously do not belong to the U.S.) to Japan. This is not the first time Americans generously give away territories that do not belong to them. Near the end of World War II, President Roosevelt wanted the USSR to fight Japan in the Pacific War to minimize American casualties. In the Yalta Conference held in February 1945, the Soviets demanded an American recognition of Mongolian independence from China, and a recognition of Soviet interests in the Manchurian railways and Port Arthur, which Imperial Russia lost to Japan in the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905). Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt agreed without Chinese representation or consent. The agreement was imposed on China after the War. China lost a territory larger than the size of England and France combined. After the Americans sowed the seed of conflict by transferring control of these islands to Japan, financial incentive and national proud soon triggered competition of sovereignty by China, Taiwan and Japan. The United States successfully hijacked patriotism of both nations to serve its interests. The Chinese government always maintains the position that sovereignty of these islands has never been given up and they are part of China. Former Chinese leaders had a mutual understanding with the Japanese government that sovereignty claim be set aside and no unilateral action be taken to assert sovereignty on these uninhabited islands. Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) said, "We do not have the wisdom to resolve the Diaoyutai Islands problem. We could wait, even decade is fine." This explained why the Chinese government was not supportive of civil actions in exercising Chinese sovereignty rights such as landing on Diaoyutai Islands. Commitment to this understanding served the two nations well in strengthening diplomatic tie and economic development. On 1 June 2012, China and Japan began direct trading of Chinese Renminbi (RMB ¥ or yuan 元) and Japanese yen in Tokyo and Shanghai to facilitate bilateral trades and investment between the two countries. The greenbacks has been the only major direct trading currency in trade settlement. This move will reduce demand of the U.S. dollars in international currency market, hence curbing America's ability to repay debt by printing money. Shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visited Tokyo in July 2012, the Japanese government decided to purchase the Diaoyutai Islands from the Kurihara family for a reported US$26.15 million and announced nationalization of these islands on 10 September 2012. Japan's suddenly action to break the status quo outraged China and Taiwan. Chinese worldwide boycotted Japanese goods. Toyota reported a sales drop of 40% following the Diaoyutai crisis. Consequently, both economies suffered setback.
Allegation of Japanese Warship locked by Chinese Fire-Control RadarJapan is an expert in fabricating excuses to further its aggression. Similar ruse has been used repeatedly before to start aggression in China. Due to imperialistic invasion and exploitation, the presence of foreign troops on Chinese soil was common since the late Qing Dynasty. After the First Sino-Japanese War from 1894 to 1895 (also known as the War of Jiawu 甲午戰爭), Japan annexed Korea and stationed troops in Manchuria after winning the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905). To further its territorial ambition in resource-rich Manchuria, Japanese military engineered a pretext for invasion by detonating a small amount of dynamite close on a railroad owned by Japan's South Manchuria Railway near Mukden (now Shenyang). The Imperial Japanese Army accused Chinese of the act and began a full invasion that led to the occupation of Manchuria. Japan established a puppet state under 1945. This is the 918 Incident in 1931 (also known as the Mukden Incident). On 7 July 1937, the Imperial Japanese army conducted a military exercise in the vicinity of Beijing. A Japanese solider was alleged missing. Japanese troops demanded entry of Chinese held territory to look for the missing soldier. Local Chinese commanders denied. At about 4:50 a.m. 8 July 1937, Japanese opened fire despite that the missing soldier had already returned and reported to duty. Unlike in previous conflicts, the Chinese army fought back. This is the Marco Polo Bridge Incident that marks the beginning of the 8-year long Second Sino-Japanese War (also known as the War of Resistance Against Japan 抗日戰爭) that cost 30 million Chinese, mainly civilians, casualties. International law stipulates that de facto control of a territory exceeding 50 years may qualify for annexation. At the point of writing, if Japan retains control of the islands for another 8 years, its legal position to incorporate them will be improved. China responded by stepping up marine surveillance vessel patrol of surrounding waters to assert sovereignty rights. Chinese vessels, civilian or military alike, approaching Diaoyutai waters will attract surveillance and at times aggressive intimidation from Japanese warships. On 4 February 2013, Japan accused China of locking fire control radar on a Japanese destroyer and a helicopter on two separate counts in January 2013. Japan alleged the locking was intended as a threat to Japan to back off from its claims to the Diaoyutai islands. After confirming with her military, China denied the allegation and challenged Japan to show proof of fire radar locking. Japan refused and shrewdly alleged that showing proof will inevitably disclose its military capability and secrets. America immediately concurred with Japan's position. In such absurd logic, any allegation can be made without justification by citing national secrecy. This ruse bears remarkable resemblance with that often used by service providers in the child protection industry. When questioned by the media on sensitive child protection cases that could harm the image of the industry, authorities often say no comment could be made under the pretext of protecting the privacy of children as required by law. This keeps people guessing in the dark. Media has nothing to report and state-created child removal atrocities are often soon forgotten. Any actions could be justified by an allegation without support of facts or valid reasons.
Reasons of Conflict Between China and the U.S.A.From a macro perspective, all conflicts are ultimately a result of too many people competing for too few resources. Historically, America and China had been allied and had fought each other in different places for various reasons. The first war against China took place when the United States offered help to England in the Second Opium War (1856 to 1860) and to a larger extent, when the United States joined the Eight-Nation Alliance in the Boxer Rebellion (1900). The last war is the Korean War (1950-1953) in which General Mark Clark was the first American commander to agree to an armistice without victory. This is also the first time in modern history that the Chinese armed force fought a world class international army to a standstill with inferior military equipment and little air support. America has adopted the doctrine of limited war aimed at containing advance of communism (such as the Vietnam War) and total war aimed at victory at all costs (such as World War II). These strategies had been successful with more prominent victory in the War on Terror and the 2003 invasion of Iraq (from 19 March 2003 to 1 May 2003). It is noteworthy to mention that Japan sent 600 troops to aid the Coalition in the 2003 Iraq War. Despite whether these Japanese troops played any combat role, this marked the first time that Japan sent an expeditionary force overseas for non self defence purpose since the end of World War II. Obviously, this amounts to a contravention against Japanese constitution. Of course, no country complained when the U.S. concurred such action. China has never fought an aggressive war on American soil and was an ally during World War I and II. An estimated of a quarter million Chinese civilians were massacred by the Japanese Army in eastern China in retaliation for saving American airmen after the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo in 1942. We could not find any other nation who had sacrificed so many of its citizens to save American lives. Why the world's only super power takes such a dangerous measure that could potentially lead to a nuclear holocaust? Ideological difference alone is unlikely to be the cause of war. The documentary above gives a good overview of subtle hostility between the two nations. James R. Liley (李潔明), an American diplomat born in China who served as the American Ambassador to China at the time of the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, held a very critical view on the rise of China as a new economic and military superpower. Liley had worked in many Asian countries as a CIA operative and helped to insert CIA agents into China. His view is typical among other American hardliner politicians and military leaders. We will try to find an answer from the following:
America's Plan of Preemptive StrikePreemptive strike is an enticing option to military planners. At the tactical level, it is logical to launch a first strike while there is still an edge over one's enemy and the element of surprise is present. This will improve the chance of winning at the onset to boost morale and to compel a defeated enemy to sue for peace. This is precisely Yamamoto's rationale to attack Pearl Habor in 1941 before the U.S. builds a navy and air force strong enough to challenge Japan's regional supremacy. The U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff published a strategic plan titled "Joint Vision 2020" in June 2000. The focus of the plan is to attain full spectrum dominance through interdependent application of dominant maneuver, precision engagement, focused logistics and full dimensional protection. Although this plan is largely military in nature, the strategic concepts of power projection and overseas presence are of equal importance. In essence, it advocates hegemonic supremacy in every aspect. We are mindful that an open document does not necessarily reflect the full intent or real course of actions of the U.S. planners. This document could be used to solicit financial support from the U.S. Congress, boost morale and/or to impel its potential rivalries to engage in resource draining defence programs calculated to bankrupt these nations (such as the star war program announced by the Regan administration in the 1980s to incite the Soviet Union to spend massive financial resources to compete). Nonetheless, the motive of the U.S. is clear: to maintain its hegemony (to remain strong in their own words) at all costs, including preemptive strike. Furthermore, George W. Bush gave notice to Russia that the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty on 13 December 2001. Since then, America is not constrained by anti-ballistic missile treaty. After U.S. congressmen and senators overwhelming passed the National Defence Authorization Act Bill in 2012, President Obama signed the bill that authorized more funding and more power to the military, including the power to detain indefinitely without trial. It also authorized preemptive strike against China. This gives a green light to go to war against civil liberty and the most populous country in the world. First tactical victory is seldom decisive. Final success of a war depends on a large number of factors such as the relative comprehensive strength, leadership skills, unity of a nation, possession of strategic resources, righteous cause of going to war, prudent planning, astute and prompt decisions, ... etc. The only certainty of preemptive strike is to push both belligerents to a point of no return. Yamamoto's mistake in 1941 proved that preemptive strike is not a sure-win strategy and could bring disaster, especially in a nuclear era. America has other subtle plans to foster support of preemptive strike against China. Among those, the accusation of Chinese cyber theft is more prominent. In February 2013, the American government alleged hacker attacks to steal U.S. military secrets are from China, citing IP addresses that belong to the People's Liberation Army quarter in Shanghai. Even some high school kids know how to ghost surf the internet with a phony IP address. No professional hacker would use an IP address traceable to his real identities. Furthermore, it is inconceivable to believe that the CIA is not hacking information systems of foreign governments. Press release of faulty accusation based on unscientific reason aims to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment in a gullible American public and to garner support of rougher actions against China. Shortly after the Xi-Obama summit in California where the U.S. President directly aired concerns about Chinese cyber theft to his counterpart, NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden testified that the U.S. had hacked hundreds of targets in Hong Kong – including public officials, the Hong Kong Chinese University, businesses and students in the city – and on Mainland China on 9 June 2013. He also alleged that NSA (National Security Agency, often referred as No Such Agency) also monitors other American intelligence agencies such as the CIA and FBI. This confirms Chinese President Xi's allegation that China is a major victim of cyber theft. Mr. Snowden's interview transcript and news video footage are archived below. Conclusion In his famous treatise on military tactics "The Art of War" (孫子兵法), Sun Tze (孫子) did not advocate preemptive strike per se. He qualified supreme excellence as subduing an enemy without fighting. America plots to shoot China with bullets from Japan and to provoke China to act and be tainted as an aggressor. Rearming Japan is an important American strategy in containing China. The United States will hit a jackpot if war breaks out between China and Japan. It will weaken the military and economic strength of both countries, create more demand of American military supplies and open an opportunity for the United States to further extend its influence in a destabilized Pacific region. Japan would not have taken such bold aggressive stance in the Diaoyutai dispute if there is no American backing. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met President Barack Obama in the White House on 22 February 2013. After the meeting, Obama remarked that Japan is one of America's closest allies, and the U.S.-Japan alliance is the central foundation for the regional security in the Pacific region. And that friendship extends not just between the two governments but also between the American and Japanese peoples. Japan had been nuked by America and they are now closest allies. Illusional sense of security from alliance with America could lead to disastrous mistakes. Will the United States risk being attacked by Chinese nuclear tipped missiles when regional hostility begins? The American position in the Diaoyutai dispute is the security of these islands is covered by the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan and at the same time the United States takes no position in the sovereignty dispute. Strategic ambiguity enables America to get involved or back off at will. In politics, there is no everlasting friends or foes. America has betrayed its allies before (such as the Chinese Nationalist government in the Chinese Liberation War from 1946 to 1949 and South Vietnam in 1975) and will do so again if it serves its best national interests. Japan had shocked the world, in particular the Americans, of its fanatic armed force performing unthinking acts such as Kamakazi and banzai suicidal charge. Like the suicidal human bomb used by modern terrorists, this brutal tactic costs dearly in human lives and carries little strategic significance to change the outcome of war. One must question the wisdom of using a running dog of this caliber. Japan lacks the strategic resources to become a superpower but has an ambition to become one. Its relatively large population live in small islands scattered with nuclear plants capable of producing weapon grade fusion fuel. Some of its warships and ocean liners can be converted to aircraft carriers on short notice. Above all, Japan shows no remorse on the war crimes committed against countries it had invaded. It is seeking an excuse to change its constitution by using ruses that it had used in the past to build an armed force capable of waging aggressive war and launching preemptive strike. Americans ought to have known better than any other nations that unleashing a fanatic running dog is a dangerous choice. Japan boosted that it could defeat China in three months at the outbreak of hostility in 1937. Japanese army implemented the Three Alls Policy (三光政策), namely kill all, loot all, burn all, after 1940 to exterminate the Chinese race. Barbaric inhumane act of slaughtering unarmed civilians did not break the Chinese will to fight. The war dragged on for eight years and Japan was defeated. In 2013, Japan alleged that it could destroy the Chinese navy and air force in two hours and warned the Chinese government not to overestimate its military strength. The U.S. military made similar threat that Chinese leaders may wake up in the morning to find out that half of their navy and air force have been wiped out. By comparison, the American threat is more modest. Japan failed to defeat China when there was a sharp disparity in military strength in the last two Sino-Japanese wars. What chance does Japan stand now when China is now a nuclear power governed by competent leadership? It appears that Japan has not learned from its mistakes in the past and needs another lesson before it is ready to live peacefully. Most Canadians would tend to side with the United States and Japan because they are democratic countries and China is not. Our close ties, cultural similarities, common heritage and analogous ethnic background may render us more susceptible to pro-American propaganda. Perhaps many of us do not know or may have forgotten that Canadians had suffered in Japanese hands at the outbreak of the Pacific War. A regiment from Manitoba fought the Japanese in Hong Kong shortly after the Pearl Harbour attack. After 17 days of fighting, the British surrendered. Canadian soldiers expected to be treated according to the Geneva Convention, a treaty that the Empire of Japan did not recognize. Our soldiers were brutally mistreated in Japanese POW camp for over 3 years and 8 months until Japan unconditionally surrendered in 1945. Among the 1,975 Canadian soldiers sent to aid the British in the defence of Hong Kong, 550 never return. Those who have flown to the United States from the Vancouver International Airport (YVR) should have noticed that YVR is a pre-clearance airport for most airlines flying to the United States. This means travelers will clear U.S. Customs and Border Protection before leaving Vancouver. In view of security needs after 911, Canadians have not complained of American immigration laws enforced on Canadian soil. What if China does the same? If our government allows it, many Canadians will be pounding on the table for invasion of our national sovereignty. This is how we subconsciously submit to the American position in our upbringing.
"The people have always some champion whom they set over them and nurse into greatness... This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs, when he first appears he is a protector."
(Plato, 429-347 B.C., Source: The Republic) Understanding history and careful analysis of facts and empirical data will shed more light to make better judgment and to mitigate gullibility on the vast amount of information imparted from various sources. Like service providers in the child protection industry, those who appear to be a protector, occupy the moral high ground and pursue a seemingly noble cause. However, their motive and actions are not necessarily righteous. They could be the perpetrator, or more precisely a wolf in sheep's skin. The analogy below illustrates the similarities between a hegemony (a bully at the state level) and the child protection regime.
Sun Tze correctly remarked over two thousand years ago that war is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. It is a subject of inquiry which must not be taken lightly. "The Art of War" is a compulsory subject in West Point Military Academy. American decision makers should rethink their nation's position and decide when to fight and when not to fight. Is there a righteous reason to go to war simply because its only superpower status may be at risk? It is a duty owed not only to Americans but also to the entire human race. We cherish peace and the safety of our children. That's why we study history to avoid mistakes mankind made in the past. In a nuclear war, the largest enemy is war itself. |
[This page was conceptualized on 11 February 2013, published on 28 February 2013, last revised 7 October 2014.]